Abstract
Crispin Wright has given an explanation of how a first time warrant can fall short of transmitting across a known entailment. Formal epistemologists have struggled to turn Wright’s informal explanation into cogent Bayesian reasoning. In this paper, I analyse two Bayesian models of Wright’s account respectively proposed by Samir Okasha and Jake Chandler. I argue that both formalizations are unsatisfactory for different reasons, and I lay down a third Bayesian model that appears to me to capture the valid kernel of Wright’s explanation. After this, I consider a recent development in Wright’s account of transmission failure. Wright suggests that his condition sufficient for transmission failure of first time warrant also suffices for transmission failure of supplementary warrant. I propose an interpretation of Wright’s suggestion that shields it from objections. I then lay down a fourth Bayesian framework that provides a simplified model of the unified explanation of transmission failure envisaged by Wright.
Lingua originale | Inglese |
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pagine (da-a) | 217-234 |
Numero di pagine | 18 |
Rivista | Synthese |
Volume | 184 |
Numero di pubblicazione | 3 |
DOI | |
Stato di pubblicazione | Pubblicato - 2012 |
Keywords
- Bayesianism
- Warrant
- Warrant transmission