The Supermultiplier Model and the Role of Autonomous Demand: An Empirical Test for European Countries

In recent years, Supermultiplier models have attracted rising attention, highlighting the role of autonomous components of demand in shaping the long-run growth path of the economy. This paper aims to empirically test the implications of this approach in selected European economies, grouped according to the literature on welfare model classification. First, we outline the short-run adjustments and long-run relations between autonomous demand growth and output by estimating a vector error-correction model (VECM). Second, we assess if a causal relationship between the variables can be identified by estimating a structural model and computing the orthogonalized impulse response functions, focusing in particular on the effects of a demand shock on output. The empirical results confirm a positive and significant relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run for all countries considered. Moreover, we find that the causal direction runs from the former to the latter, corroborating the idea that autonomous demand shocks permanently affect the growth path of the economies under scrutiny.