The Impact of Degree Duration on Higher Education Participation: Evidence from a Large-scale Natural Experiment

This paper investigates the effects on enrolment, retention rate and on-time graduation of a nationwide Bologna Process reform introduced in Italy to establish BAs with a duration of three years, followed by optional second-tier degrees of two years, in place of single-tier degrees of four or five years. The analysis exploits exogenous delay of treatment conditions and the unique availability of microdata that cover the universe of the departments. We estimate that the reform boosted first-year enrolments by 14.5–17.3 percentage points, compared to a counterfactual status of no reform. This enrolment shift was due to participation gains rather than substitution effects, and it is likely to have persisted in the longer term. Moreover, no trade-off between increased participation and deteriorated retention and on-time graduation emerged.