SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: New models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Hageman Steven, Pennells Lisa, Ojeda Francisco, Kaptoge Stephen, Kuulasmaa Kari, de Vries Tamar, Xu Zhe, Kee Frank, Chung Ryan, Wood Angela, McEvoy John William, Veronesi Giovanni, Bolton Thomas, Achenbach Stephan, Aleksandrova Krasimira, Amiano Pilar, Sebastian Donostia-San, Amouyel Philippe, Andersson Jonas, Stephan J L BakkerDa Providencia Costa Rui Bebiano, Joline W J Beulens, Blaha Michael, Bobak Martin, Jolanda M A Boer, Bonet Catalina, Bonnet Fabrice, Boutron-Ruault Marie-Christine, Braaten Tonje, Brenner Hermann, Brunner Fabian, Eric J Brunner, Brunström Mattias, Buring Julie, Adam S Butterworth, Capkova Nadezda, Cesana Giancarlo, Chrysohoou Christina, Colorado-Yohar Sandra, Nancy R Cook, Cooper Cyrus, Christina C Dahm, Davidson Karina, Dennison Elaine, Di Castelnuovo Augusto, Donfrancesco Chiara, Dörr Marcus, Doryńska Agnieszka, Eliasson Mats, Engström Gunnar, Ferrari Pietro, Ferrario Marco, Ford Ian, Fu Michael, Ron T Gansevoort, Giampaoli Simona, Richard F Gillum, Gómez de la Cámara Agustin, Grassi Guido, Hansson Per-Olof, Huculeci Radu, Hveem Kristian, Iacoviello Licia, Ikram M Kamran, Jørgensen Torben, Joseph Bijoy, Jousilahti Pekka, Jukema J Wouter, Kaaks Rudolf, Katzke Verena, Kavousi Maryam, Kiechl Stefan, Klotsche Jens, König Wolfgang, Richard A Kronmal, Kubinova Ruzena, Kucharska-Newton Anna, Läll Kristi, Lehmann Nils, Leistner David, Linneberg Allan, Pablos David Lora, Lorenz Thiess, Lu Wentian, Luksiene Dalia, Lyngbakken Magnus, Magnussen Christina, Malyutina Sofia, Ibañez Alejandro Marín, Masala Giovanna, Ellisiv B Mathiesen, Matsushita Kuni, Tom W Meade, Melander Olle, Haakon E Meyer, Karel G M Moons, Moreno-Iribas Conchi, Muller David, Münzel Thomas, Nikitin Yury, Børge G Nordestgaard, Omland Torbjørn, Onland Charlotte, Overvad Kim, Packard Chris, Pająk Andrzej, Palmieri Luigi, Panagiotakos Demosthenes, Panico Salvatore, Perez-Cornago Aurora, Peters Annette, Pietilä Arto, Pikhart Hynek, Bruce M Psaty, Quarti-Trevano Fosca, Garcia J Ramón Quirós, Riboli Elio, Paul M Ridker, Rodriguez Beatriz, Rodriguez-Barranco Miguel, Rosengren Annika, Roussel Ronan, Carlotta SACERDOTE, Sans Susana, Sattar Naveed, Schiborn Catarina, Schmidt Börge, Schöttker Ben, Schulze Matthias, Joseph E Schwartz, Selmer Randi Marie, Shea Steven, Martin J Shipley, Sieri Sabina, Söderberg Stefan, Sofat Reecha, Tamosiunas Abdonas, Thorand Barbara, Tillmann Taavi, Tjønneland Anne, Tammy Y N Tong, Trichopoulou Antonia, Tumino Rosario, Tunstall-Pedoe Hugh, Tybjaerg-Hansen Anne, Tzoulaki Joanna, van der Heijden Amber, Yvonne T van der Schouw, Verschuren W M Monique, Völzke Henry, Waldeyer Christoph, Nicholas J Wareham, Weiderpass Elisabete, Weidinger Franz, Wild Philipp, Willeit Johann, Willeit Peter, Wilsgaard Tom, Woodward Mark, Zeller Tanja, Zhang Dudan, Zhou Bin, Dendale Paul, Brian A Ference, Halle Martin, Timmis Adam, Vardas Panos, Danesh John, Graham Ian, Salomaa Veikko, Visseren Frank, De Bacquer Dirk, Blankenberg Stefan, Dorresteijn Jannick, Di Angelantonio Emanuele

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo su rivistaArticolo in rivistapeer review

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and resultsa: We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusiona: SCORE2 - a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations - enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
Lingua originaleInglese
pagine (da-a)2439-2454
Numero di pagine16
RivistaEuropean Heart Journal
Volume42
Numero di pubblicazione25
DOI
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2021

Keywords

  • 10-year CVD risk
  • Cardiovascular disease
  • Primary prevention
  • Risk prediction

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