Models of Medical Reasoning

In this paper, I focus on reasoningReasoning about individual cases in medicineMedicine. The relevance of the individual case has always been present both in medical and clinical researchResearch and has acquired further significance in recent timesTime. Here, after recalling the importance of reasoningReasoning about individual cases, I introduce the distinctionDistinction between general and singular causationCausation, singular and explain why medical reasoningReasoning, medical needs the latter. I then consider three areas in which this necessity is most apparent: diagnosisDiagnosis, early phase clinical trialsTrial, clinical in oncology, and forensic medicineMedicine, forensic. I argue that the best approachApproach to this form of causal reasoningReasoning is the counterfactual approachApproach provided by structural equationEquationmodelsModel. I conclude by presenting some considerations on the relation between the building of structural modelsModelfor singular causationCausation, singular and the contemporary “data deluge.” The aim of this paper is mainly philosophical: it is an attempt to interpret some actual medical approachesApproach in a new perspective and at the same timeTime connect some aspects of contemporary trends of researchResearch in medicineMedicine and bioinformatics with some classical philosophical questions. I do not give practical suggestions, but I am also persuaded that philosophical work on kinds of reasoningReasoning and on singular causationCausation, singular can be of interest for practicing physicians and experts in other fields. Digital Twins. (Reproduced with permission from Getty ImagesImage).