Is the Atlantic a Source for Decadal Predictability of Sea-Level Rise in Venice?

Sea-level rise is one of the most critical consequences of global warming, with potentially vast impacts on coastal environments and societies. Sea-level changes are spatially and temporally heterogeneous on multiannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Here, we demonstrate that the observed rate of winter sea-level rise in the Italian city of Venice contains significant multidecadal fluctuations, including interdecadal periods of near-zero trend. Previous literature established a connection between the local sea-level trend in Venice and over the broad subpolar and eastern North Atlantic. We demonstrate that for multidecadal variations in sea-level trend such connection holds only since the mid-20th Century. Such multidecadal sea-level fluctuations relate to North Atlantic sea-surface temperature changes described by the Atlantic multidecadal variability, or AMV. The link is explained by combined effect of AMV-linked steric variations in the North Atlantic propagating in the Mediterranean Sea, and large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic with a local effect on sea level in Venice. We discuss the implications of such variability for near-term predictability of winter sea-level changes in Venice. Combining available sea-level projections for Venice with a scenario of imminent AMV cooling yields a slowdown in the rate of sea-level rise in Venice, with the possibility of mean values remaining even roughly constant in the next two decades as AMV effects contrast the expected long-term sea-level rise. Acknowledging, understanding, and communicating this multidecadal variability in local sea-level rise is crucial for management and protection of this world-class historical site.