Individualized risk estimation for postoperative morbidity after hepatectomy: the Humanitas score

Background Estimation of postoperative morbidity after hepatectomy remains challenging. The aim of this prospective study was to develop a surgical score to predict an individual risk of post-hepatectomy complications. Methods All consecutive patients scheduled for hepatectomy from February 2012 to September 2015 were included and randomly assigned into a derivation or validation cohort. We developed a score based on preoperative variables, and we tested them using multivariate analyses. Odds-ratio (OR) values were used to build the score. Results 340 patients were included, 240 in the derivation and 100 in the validation cohort. Multivariate analysis showed that major hepatectomy (OR = 1.62; 95% CI 1.39–3.51), liver stiffness ≥9.7 kPa (OR = 2.46; 95% CI 1.16–5.28), BILCHE score (combination of serum bilirubin and cholinesterase) ≥2 (OR = 2.76; 95% CI 0.82–4.28) and esophageal varices (OR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.51–3.61) were independent complications predictors. A 10-point scoring system was introduced. Patients with a score ≤4 did not experience complications, whereas patients with ≥7 points experienced up to 54% of complications (P < 0.001). Conclusions A new, easy and clinically reliable surgical score based on the liver stiffness, BILCHE score, type of hepatectomy, and presence of varices may be used to predict post-hepatectomy morbidity. Clinical trial number NCT02454686 (https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/).