Exploration of novel prognostic markers in grade 3 neuroendocrine neoplasia

Background: High-grade neuroendocrine tumours and carcinomas (NET/NECs) behave aggressively, typically presenting at an advanced stage. Prognosis is poor, with median survival between 5 and 34 months. The mainstay of treatment is palliative systemic therapy. However, therapy carries a risk of toxicity, which can reduce quality of life. Therefore, accurate prognostic scores for risk stratification of patients with high-grade NET/NECs are needed to help guide patient management to decide whether active treatment is likely to improve overall survival (OS). We aimed to compare the prognostic ability of published prognostic scores to predict OS in a cohort of patients with high-grade NET/NECs of any primary site. Methods: Treatment, biochemical and clinicopathological data were collected retrospectively from 77 patients with high-grade NET/NECs across three hospitals between 2016 and 2020. Variables including performance status (PS), Ki-67, age at diagnosis, previous treatment and presence of liver metastases were recorded. Pre-treatment neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio, modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), and gastrointestinal neuroendocrine carcinoma (GI-NEC) score were derived. Univariable and multivariable survival analyses were used to assess prognostic ability. Results: The median age of the cohort was 63 years (range: 31–85); 53% of subjects were female. Grade 3 NETs (G3-NETs) were identified in 32 patients and NECs in 45 patients. The median OS was 13.45 months (range: 0.87–65.37) with no difference observed between G3-NETs and NECs. Univariable analysis revealed that NLR (n = 72, p = 0.049), mGPS (n = 56, p = 0.003), GI-NEC score (n = 27, p = 0.0007) and Ki-67 (n = 66, p = 0.007) were significantly associated with OS. Multivariable analysis confirmed that elevated mGPS (p = 0.046), GI-NEC score (p = 0.036), and Ki-67 (p = 0.02) were independently prognostic for reduced OS across the entire cohort. mGPS was identified as an independent prognostic factor in G3-NETs. Independent predictors of OS in NECs were PS and Ki-67. Conclusions: mGPS, PS and Ki-67 are independent prognostic markers in high-grade NET/NEC patients. Our study supports the use of these prognostic scores for risk stratification of patients with high grade cancers and as useful tools to guide treatment decisions.