A Multivariate Mixture Regression Model for Constrained Responses

Compositional data are vectors typically representing proportions of a whole, that is, those whose elements are strictly positive and subject to a unit-sum constraint. The increasing number of fields where this type of data arises makes the development of proper statistical tools an important issue. From a regression perspective, whenever the multivariate response is a compositional vector, a proper model that accounts for the unit-sum constraint is the well-established Dirichlet regression model. However, there are significant drawbacks mainly due to the limited flexibility of the Dirichlet distribution. The aim of this contribution is to introduce a new multivariate regression model for constrained responses, that is based on the extended flexible Dirichlet distribution (which is a structured mixture with Dirichlet distributed components). The new model is obtained by adopting a novel reparameterization which allows for, among other things, the presence of suitably designed cluster-specific regression patterns. It is shown to provide considerably greater flexibility and better performance than the standard Dirichlet regression model. In particular, from theoretical analysis, intensive simulation studies in many challenging scenarios, as well as from a real data application, it emerges that the new regression model can handle several issues affecting the Dirichlet regression, such as the presence of outliers, latent groups, multi-modality, and positive correlations.