A Functional Regression Approach for Prediction in a District-Heating System

Aldo GOIA

A Functional Regression Approach for Prediction in a District-Heating System

Aldo GOIA

Dipartimento di Studi per l'Economia e l'Impresa

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo alla conferenza › Contributo in Atti di Convegno

Abstract

We consider the problem of short-term peak demand forecasting in a district heating system. Our dataset consists of four separated periods, with 198 days each period and 24 hourly observations within each day relative to heat consumption and climate. We take advantage of the functional nature of the data and we propose a forecasting methodology based on functional regression. The influence of exogenous explanatory variables is modelled in a suitable way. The out-of-sample performances of the proposed approach are evaluated.

Lingua originale	Francese
Stato di pubblicazione	Pubblicato - 1 gen 2010
Evento	42èmes Journées de Statistique - Marseille, France Durata: 1 gen 2010 → …

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???	42èmes Journées de Statistique
Città	Marseille, France
Periodo	1/01/10 → …

OSS delle Nazioni Unite

Questo processo contribuisce al raggiungimento dei seguenti obiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile

SDG 7 Energia pulita e accessibile
SDG 13 Lotta contro il cambiamento climatico

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AB - We consider the problem of short-term peak demand forecasting in a district heating system. Our dataset consists of four separated periods, with 198 days each period and 24 hourly observations within each day relative to heat consumption and climate. We take advantage of the functional nature of the data and we propose a forecasting methodology based on functional regression. The influence of exogenous explanatory variables is modelled in a suitable way. The out-of-sample performances of the proposed approach are evaluated.

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