Abstract
[Machine translation] The explanations proposed in the days following the referendum vote on December 4, 2016 highlighted two orders of factors. On the one hand, it was emphasized that the outcome was largely predictable based on the loyalty of the voters to the indications of their parties. On the other hand, it has been remarked that the victory of the No was due to the most classic of “punitive” effects: an electorate dissatisfied with their socio-economic conditions tends to vote against the government in office, regardless of the subject matter of the vote, to indicate a strong situation of discomfort. In this chapter, we explore both hypotheses through an ecological analysis on provincial level data. The result of our analysis confirms that both motivations played a role in the expression of the vote, but in a differentiated way between the northern and southern areas of the country. In the North, the political explanation prevails, while in the South, social motivations have had a greater effect.
| Translated title of the contribution | [Machine translation] The No in search of explanations: political and social factors in the territorial distribution of the vote |
|---|---|
| Original language | Italian |
| Title of host publication | La prova del No. Il sistema politico italiano dopo il referendum costituzionale |
| Publisher | Rubbettino |
| Pages | 93-111 |
| Number of pages | 19 |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 |
Keywords
- Referendum
- Comportamento elettorale
- Italia
- disoccupazione
- Analisi ecologica